Update of Fourth Turning

Demographer Neil Howe is going to discuss the current state of the world and how it relates to his Fourth Turning Thesis.

In 1997, Neil and William Strauss wrote the book The Fourth Turning, which predicted America would enter a generation-long era of fundamental civic and economic transformation starting around 2010 and that the 2020s would be a decade of crisis and climax. Now that we’re entering the 2020s, Neil will take a closer look at what he wrote and why, as well as take a look at the current outlook. Neil will discuss everything from the economy and consumer tastes to politics and popular culture. He will take a look at “turnings” in history, generational archetypes, and how the cycle works in various regions of the world. 

According to Neil, the original catalyst of this Fourth Turning was the GFC in 2008 that led to huge changes in America’s attitudes towards the rich and poor, and to globalism, which gave rise to populism and led to the election of Donald Trump. The next ten years of 2020 are going to be critical; Neil expects it to be tumultuous, especially in regards to politics (i.e., rigged elections, indictments, impeachments, etc.). Who will become the Great Champion of the Fourth Turning? Will they seek to tear it all down, or will they look to bring everyone together and provide a restoration towards normalcy? Other topics include the current pandemic, our economic crisis, and our relationship with China. 

 Neil Howe / Hedgeye Risk Management

Neil Howe is a renowned authority on generations and social change in America. An acclaimed bestselling author and speaker, he is the nation’s leading thinker on today’s generations—who they are, what motivates them, and how they will shape America’s future.

A historian, economist, and demographer, Howe is also a recognized authority on global aging, long-term fiscal policy, and migration. He is a senior associate to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., where he helps direct the CSIS Global Aging Initiative.

Howe has written over a dozen books on generations, demographic change, and fiscal policy, many of them with William Strauss. Howe and Strauss’s first book, Generations, is the history of America told as a sequence of generational biographies. Vice President Al Gore called it “the most stimulating book on American history that I have ever read” and sent a copy to every member of Congress. Newt Gingrich called it “an intellectual tour de force.” In their book, The Fourth Turning, the Boston Globe wrote, “If Howe and Strauss are right, they will take their place among the great American prophets.”

Howe and Strauss originally coined the term “Millennial Generation” in 1991, and wrote the pioneering book on this generation, Millennials Rising. His work has been featured frequently in the media, including USA Today, CNN, the New York Times, and CBS’s 60 Minutes.

Previously, with Peter G. Peterson, Howe co-authored On Borrowed Time, a pioneering call for budgetary reform and The Graying of the Great Powers with Richard Jackson.